Needless to say, extreme climate phenomena are very evident all over the world in 2022. Moreover, the climate change in 2022 will probably continue to occur.
From NASA’s statistics, both in June and in July 2022, heat waves hit the world in general. In Europe, North Africa, the Middle East and Asia, some areas saw temperatures climb above 40 degrees Celsius, breaking many long-term records.
Among them, according to statistical analysis, in the summer following most La Niña events, the western Pacific subtropical high pressure tends to drift northward – one of the reasons for the persistent heat waves in China.
Recently, the Japan Meteorological Agency and NOAA released consecutive reports on the development of the La Niña phenomenon. The “first signs” are not unusual, and the next climate shift will likely be even more exceptional.
The British journal Nature has previously published a note suggesting that a rare “triple” La Niña event could occur. Now, the Japan Meteorological Agency believes La Niña is still ongoing and expects a 40% chance of a summer event and a 60% chance of a sustained fall end.
And NOAA sees a 60% probability of La Niña continuing throughout the summer and then developing in the Northern Hemisphere in the fall and early winter (last month’s forecast was 58%).
The confidence in the forecast stems from the renewed strengthening of the trade winds, which has helped cool surface waters and made this June’s Walker circulation the tied third strongest on record. And this index has a fairly strong correlation with La Niña.